Democrats Make Up 54% of Early and Mail-In Voters So Far in Key Midterm Data, but the Numbers Don’t Show How Anyone Voted
Democrats make up a clear majority of the Americans who have voted early or by mail so far in the 2026 midterms, according to state election data compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News and reported by the New York Post.
Of early and mail-in voters so far, 54% were Democrats, 30% were Republicans and 16% were independents or “other,” according to the data.
That does not mean Democrats are winning. The figures show the party of the people who have cast ballots, not who they voted for. Ballots are secret, and votes are not counted until Election Day, Nov. 3.
THE NUMBERS IN THE SENATE BATTLEGROUNDS
The Democratic share of early voters is also large in several of the year’s top Senate races, according to the data reported by the Post:
In Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, early voters so far are 55% Democratic and 36% Republican.
In Iowa, where Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, the split is 57% Democratic, 29% Republican and 14% “other.”
In Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, it is 55% Democratic and 19% Republican, with more than a quarter of ballots from “other” voters.
In Texas, where Democratic state Rep. James Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, the split is 62% Democratic and 32% Republican, according to the Post.
In Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn, early voters are 45% Democratic and 38% Republican, compared with 44% to 41% at the same point in 2022. According to Nebraska’s secretary of state, 89% of Democrats who have voted so far also voted in 2022 and 2024, and 10% are new voters. For Republicans, 91% voted in the past and 7% are new.
Virginia has seen 519,000 ballots so far, compared with 260,000 at this point in 2022, the Post reported.
WHAT THE EARLY VOTING DATA DOES NOT SHOW
Democrats historically tend to vote early or by mail, the Post noted, so an early Democratic edge is common and does not predict the final result on its own. Independent and “other” voters can also vote for either party.
Michigan and Texas do not register voters by party, so the party labels for those states depend on how the data firm classifies voters. The Post’s report did not explain that method.
“We know the Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage,” University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss told the Post. But he said it remains to be seen whether the early numbers point to a wave of new voters or just “upper status voters who always vote anyway.”
TRUMP’S NEW MESSAGE ON EARLY VOTING
President Donald Trump has long attacked mail-in voting, calling it “inherently corrupt.” This year, he has been urging his supporters to vote early.
“If your state has early voting, do not wait. Go out and vote. Vote early, vote by mail, or vote in person on Election Day, November 3rd, so we can defeat the radical left ‘Dumocrats’ in a midterm victory that is too big to rig,” Trump said in a video from the Oval Office last weekend, according to the Post. He also told voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
Sources: New York Post (Oct. 17, 2026), citing state election data compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News and figures from the Nebraska secretary of state. Cover and in-post backgrounds: file photos via Wikimedia Commons (Paul Sableman, CC BY 2.0; Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0).
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